2024 U.S. Election Analysis Report for Agriculture

CINCINNATI, OHIO (September 24, 2024) – The Directions Group (formerly Aimpoint Research) has released a comprehensive report on the upcoming U.S. election, detailing multiple policy scenarios and associated impacts for agriculture. The 2024 U.S. Election Analysis for Agriculture Report is an impartial and balanced evaluation intended to help businesses and producers identify where positive returns can be earned no matter who controls the White House and Congress. Along with the report, The Directions Group will host a public webinar on October 1 to share results of the analysis.

“It is always important to monitor ag policy as a producer or business owner, but especially in an election year and the year following. In 2025, we are facing three hallmark pieces of legislation that will have a very real impact on our industry. The new Congress with the incoming administration will need to pass a new tax bill, approve a federal budget, and address the expiring Farm Bill,” said Mark Purdy, The Directions Group Executive Vice President of Agri-Food. “Our goal with this analysis is to provide a deep line of sight into multiple scenarios and outcomes that could unfold after this election cycle. Armed with this information, businesses can put strategies in place that will allow them to maintain success no matter what unfolds.”

The report outlines the likely policy positions for each party and subsequent scenarios for priority areas of agriculture, including regulatory agendas, budget and fiscal policies, tax reform, trade and tariffs, sustainability, energy, anti-trust, labor, as well as Farm Bill and food policy. 

A new tax bill is a must do piece of legislation in 2025, as the current bill expires at the end of the year. Regardless of party control, a new tax code will require budgetary offsets to pay for new or different tax provisions. Analysts identified how a new tax bill could impact agriculture in key areas, including tariffs and estate tax.

• Tariffs: Increasing tariffs as a budgetary offset will increase input costs, hurting gross margins. This will also position ag exports for retaliatory tariffs, hurting U.S. export competitiveness and softening domestic commodity prices. 

• Estate Tax: The current rate is 40 percent with an exemption of $13.6 million; after expiration, the rate would stay at 40 percent, but the exemption would drop to $5 million. For context, the $5 million exemption is equivalent in value to an inherited 422 acres in Iowa. Any more would be subject to the 40 percent tax rate. 

“Regardless of election outcomes, we expect to see tariffs continue to play a role in trade policy. Paired with likely retaliatory tariffs, the trade outlook for agriculture will continue to feel pressure,” said Dave Juday, executive advisor to The Directions Group and lead economist for the report. “We do see party positions differing on tax reform details, including estate tax and capital gains. Individually, each of these issues has the potential to impact ag businesses and producers significantly, and it’s critical for producers and ag organizations to be prepared. 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for ag policy.” 

The Directions Group will host a public webinar on October 1 at 1 p.m. EST/12 p.m. CST to dive deeper into the results of the 2024 U.S. Election Analysis for Agriculture Report. Purdy will moderate a discussion with veteran ag economist, Juday, and retired multi-national executive, Mark Schweitzer, on the factors shaping the ag policy agenda for 2025, including potential impacts from midnight regulations and Presidential Executive Orders, as well as the recent Supreme Court ruling that overturned the so-called “Chevron deference”. 

Juday is an executive advisor for The Directions Groups in economics and trade, having served as an agriculture and trade policy advisor in the U.S. Senate and White House. Schweitzer is the retired vice president, Global Economic Research, and previous vice president of Investor Relations, at ADM.